The Power of Assumptions and Context in Decision-Making

 Assumptions we make define the quality of our thoughts leading to actions!!


I recently had to carry out a certain math calculation, while appearing for an exam. It was not particularly difficult and I got the result in due time. But it did not sound right. I did sums, subtractions and divisions over and over and the result did not change. It was correct. Yet... it just could not be. Finally, I realized where the mistake was. I had started from a wrong assumption! As the starting point was wrong, all the subsequent operations, although they were carried out exactly, could not give the suitable result.

This has been the premise of Rasmussen’s (1983) ‘rule-based error’ theory. If the ‘rule’ is studied without considering its ‘scope and limitations’, one tends to make a mistake by applying it incorrectly. A key ‘deployment’ aspect of any administered procedure/system is the ‘Scope’ and ‘Context’, to which it is developed. In spite, of a high ‘capacity’ system if the ‘assumptions’ are not deliberated on, the results are going to be undesirable.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Nurturing a Sense of Security Beyond the Surface

  ‘Feeling safe’ is very subjective and an indispensable need that everyone shares with the rest of mankind. Abraham Maslow has placed this at the second level of his hierarchy of needs. It’s indeed an inherent and vital component to live well and every human knows and works to secure their own physical and mental integrity. The problem arises when such need is jeopardized by some possible circumstances. What to do? There is no definite answer. Many steps can be taken in securing one's own personal affairs, but sometimes settling/fixing "things" might not be enough. The ‘feeling’ of safety goes beyond material stuff (physical needs). Having enough money to live comfortably is a good starting point... But a deeper inner feeling is necessary to make you relax and stop worrying about the future. Such a feeling can be fostered by the intuition of a greater 'plan' that exists beyond your physical perception. A plan that makes everything 'be well' in the end. Fo...
Read more

Reliability & Safety

Of late, been reading a few articles on "Reliability and Safety ". What are their properties, how are they correlated, do they have a cause-and-effect relationship and so on. While reading all this, a question dawned on me. Do we talk about reliability in the same way we do about safety?? Is it ubiquitous as safety is??. Ask anyone in a plant, “who is responsible for safety?” You are most likely to hear, “everybody, from the cleaner to the maintenance tech to the CEO.” Now ask, “who is responsible for the reliability of the plant?” You will likely get a variety of different answers, but it will not likely be, “everybody”. But shouldn't it be? As we say reliability and safety is a 'system' property and it relies heavily on its interconnected/inter-depended components. From asset design, procurement, installation, risk management, operations and maintenance—everybody who touches the system—they are all responsible for reliability. But we have often treated reliabili...
Read more

Cost of disagreements!!

How difficult is to overcome disagreements and misunderstandings? Well, its only normal for people to go any extent to prove that they are right, and it gives a sense of ‘winning’. There is an adrenaline rush which keeps us going on and on to prove our ‘point’ at any cost. However, when this happens, there is something drastically wrong happening between you and your partner (could be a friend, spouse, sibling or colleagues.) I guess only compassion, understanding and acceptance can heal the situation and will restore harmony and peace. Arent these virtues explain ‘love’. In other words, only love in our hearts for each other can come to rescue. When we realise that ‘nothing’ is more important than love, the serenity of mind, we will succeed in finding peace in our hearts.
Read more